Specialist Psychologist Hilal BEBEK
Uncertainty from an Evolutionary Perspective
Uncertainty generally causes anxiety. The knowledge we have inherited evolutionarily is that ‘there could always be a lion behind the bushes that we cannot see’. Therefore, seeing behind the bushes is vital. This is why we tend to attribute meaning to every movement. Even if the bushes could be moved by the wind, a lion, or a small mouse, it would be wise to assume the worst. After all, if it turns out to be the wind or a mouse, there is no disadvantage to being wrong. The opposite, however, could cost us our lives.
Homo Saphiens is sensitive to uncertainty due to these evolutionary settings. However, it is not only these settings that shape humans. That is why our tolerance for uncertainty and our reactions to it differ. How we were raised, our past experiences, our personality traits, our temperament; all shape our relationship with uncertainty.
Humans as ‘Uncertainty Savers’
Humans are not only equipped with sensitivity to uncertainty. They are also good ‘uncertainty savers’. Life is full of uncertainties from top to bottom. Many things, from small to large, are uncertain, such as when we will die, when we will lose family members, whether we will get sick, or the possibility of an accident in traffic. Most people normalise, suppress, or accept all these uncertainties. We generally allow gaps in our knowledge in life, thereby protecting our psychology.
Uncertainty is an unchangeable part of life. While we live intertwined with countless uncertainties from birth to death, we may have disproportionate emotional reactions to certain periodic uncertainties. Sometimes, some people feel intense distress even in the face of minor uncertainties, while others can cope better even with relatively major uncertainties. The question is: What shapes our tolerance for uncertainty?
Our tolerance is determined more by our internal thresholds than by the intensity of external uncertainty. The problem is not so much the existence of uncertainty as the inability to tolerate it. The solution is not so much to eliminate uncertainty as to be able to live with it. There are certain factors that lower or raise our thresholds for tolerance or endurance.
Uncertainty is partly a subjective phenomenon. Our expectations, beliefs, and interpretations influence our ‘perception of uncertainty.’ We may perceive the current situation as more uncertain than it actually is. Uncertainty is both a result and a beginning. We can make the situation more uncertain with preconceptions or expectations, and we can further muddy the waters with our reactions to uncertainty. This self-perpetuating cycle can leave people in a state of anxiety.
There are certain beliefs, characteristics, and expectations that lower our tolerance for uncertainty. A brief summary of some of these elements can be listed under 10 headings.
1. Trying to fill all the gaps. The need to know everything without leaving any gaps is an expectation that cannot be met. It often backfires. The human mind can process a certain amount of information, and when there is more than that, it begins to become muddled and confused. After reaching an optimum level of information, our sense of relief begins to decline from its peak. Life is full of information gaps, and we need to make room for the ‘unknown.’ Equating what we do not know with danger is an unrealistic attitude.
2. Over-detailing. It is impossible to be familiar with all the details. This expectation inevitably leads to disappointment and dissatisfaction. Knowing every detail is neither necessary nor adaptive. It inevitably increases the feeling of uncertainty. Getting bogged down in details does not clarify the mind and does not lead to satisfaction. It perpetuates the problem by creating anxiety and energy loss.
3. The desire to control everything. The effort to eliminate uncertainties may stem from a high need for control. The expectation of controlling all possibilities makes life seem more blurred than it is. Internal and external elements beyond our control are perceived as uncertainties that threaten life.
4. A high need for clarity. Faced with the distress caused by uncertainty, we want to mentally clarify life. We seek more clarity than we would normally expect from life. Our need for clarity increases. We want life to be more predictable than we would normally expect. This response to uncertainty widens the gap. On one side, there is a situation that is more uncertain than normal conditions, and on the other side, there is an expectation of clarity that is higher than normal conditions. As the gap widens, anxiety and the feeling of ‘lack of control’ increase.
5. Seeking reasons for everything. The human mind wants to create a consistent and meaningful story. Placing facts in a cause-and-effect context gives us the feeling that life is understandable and predictable. Things we cannot explain disturb us and push us to seek reasons. A series of ‘why?’ questions becomes part of managing uncertainty. Yet some things are simply the way they are… There is no reason, or it is impossible to know. It is important to make room for the lack of reason.
6. Pursuing every doubt. The human mind can be a machine that produces doubts, especially in the face of uncertainty. ‘What if I’ve caught coronavirus?’, ‘What if I’ve infected my father?’. It is not possible to dispel and eliminate all doubts. It is not possible to completely refute a doubt about the future in one’s mind. Evidence cannot be produced against what has not happened and what could happen. This is not measurable. What lowers tolerance for uncertainty is the need to refute every doubt. Completely eliminating and appeasing doubts seems to clarify life. Sometimes the existence of doubt is perceived as a sign of danger. However, what should be done is not to pursue every doubt, not to respond to every doubt, and to simply leave it alone. Despite this, the focus should remain on life.
7. Wanting things to be ‘out of the realm of possibility’. For some people, even the possibility of something happening is perceived as dangerous. For example, for all of us, there is a ‘possibility of contracting coronavirus’ or ‘a possibility that a loved one could die from the virus’. For some people, feeling safe is only possible by removing these possibilities from the realm of possibility. They want to eliminate all possibilities and guarantee that it won’t happen. Yet, a rock falling from the sky is also a possibility, but this does not make us anxious. However, we lose this flexibility when it comes to issues we care about. We must remember that many things in life are possible but do not happen. The fact that something is ‘possible’ does not mean it ‘will’ happen.
8. Seeking answers to all questions. When faced with uncertainty, our minds may be flooded with questions about the future or the present. Many people believe that finding answers will bring them peace of mind and a sense of security. However, some questions are, by their very nature, unanswerable. The solution is not to find answers to every question, but to be able to leave some unanswered. The problem is not that questions remain unanswered, but that we seek answers to every question.
9. Reviewing all possibilities. Humans cannot be aware of all the possibilities in life. There are things that could happen to us, things that could happen in the future, difficulties we may encounter, and a multitude of possible scenarios. Faced with uncertainty, we may try to consider all possibilities and attempt to master all potential scenarios. This creates a kind of virtual sense of security and control in us. However, this effort always backfires. Being preoccupied with possibilities and constantly engaging in probability analysis increases anxiety and intensifies the perception of uncertainty.
10. Not accepting human fragility. Humans are, in a sense, powerless and fragile. They have ‘weaknesses’ in certain areas. What they can do and what they can control is limited. They cannot prevent death. Even if they do everything, something beyond their control can change the outcome. A virus can defeat a human being. They cannot manipulate all variables. An unexpected illness can strike them. The solution may lie beyond their control. Knowing and accepting all these limitations increases our power over what is within our control. Knowing one’s powerlessness goes hand in hand with becoming stronger. Those who cannot accept their ontological powerlessness become more fragile.
